Abstract

The de-facto effectiveness of GCC has been reinvigorated after the Qatar diplomatic crisis for both Middle East in and the Gulf countries. The question however remains quite pertinent about the future of this organization for cooperation of the signatory actors in economic, security and socio-cultural domains particularly after the Washington’s unsatisfactory retort to the KSA in response to alleged Iran’s drone attack on Saudi oil installments on the UAE coast. In order to deconstruct the upcoming possible sustainability or instability of the GCC, the context in which the GCC was formed in the first place in 1981 is one of the most important prerequisites to understand. What led to the formation of GCC has extensively been written about, but what stands next in the future for the organization is the motivational factor of this study. Therefore, this paper attempts to draw the implications for the GCC in future and to analyze how Qatar Blockade by troika of KSA, UAE and Bahrain have affected the geo-political balance of the region.

Key Words

GCC, Qatar Blockade. Gulf crisis, Middle East, Geo-Politics of GCC. Economic Bubble of GCC

Introduction

Persian Gulf attains its significance as one of the most important sea routes for oil trade in the region. It connects South Asia with Arabian Peninsula. Along with its economic importance, Persian Gulf is also considered as a sensitive geo-strategic location in the region. The ideological drift between Iran and the rest of the Gulf nations, especially Kingdom of Saudi Arabia often results in pursuit of geo-political motives. Soon after the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the anticipated threat posed by Khomeini, the supreme leader, clouded the Middle Eastern countries. The Arab monarchies realized that the cooperation of the same cultural and ideological countries is needed for the hour to counter the effects of Iranian Revolution in gulf nations. Subsequently, after two years in 1981, six countries signed the charter of Gulf Cooperation Council including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. The purpose of GCC was to “cooperate “in economic, socio-cultural and security collectively. GCC served its purpose for many years. The organization took some landmark initiatives like incorporating the monetary policy and signing security pacts. The Gulf Cooperation Council has worked with institutes of international repute such as world bank for almost forty years. According to Word Bank, GCC holds a major chunk of the world economy(Naheem 2017a). GCC among other regional organizations like OPEC and Arab League works for the prosperity of the region and gives somewhat political stability for the Arab monarchies. However, the effectiveness came down in the following years of Arab Spring. Arab monarchies felt the heat of this revolutionary movement across the border. The sentiment somewhere in gulf nations emerged to demand for their socio-economic and freedom of speech rights. Substantially, the recent dramatic changes in intra-political structure of the gulf nations is the ample proof and work as resistance to the upcoming public storm in case of overthrowing the monarchs. Not until recently, the GCC was deemed as one of the main pillars of stability of the gulf nations. Not particularly, first time in 2017, the relation with Qatar got severe by the rest of the member GCC countries. It is a long saga of mistrust and disputes between Qatar and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia whether it is a border dispute or bridge initiatives or gas pipeline projects. In 2014, the troika of KSA, UAE and Bahrain allegedly accused Qatar of terror financing in the region and for having ties with Muslim Brotherhood. The suspension of the diplomatic ties was carried for not fulfilling the 2013 security pact. Furthermore, the troika also blamed Qatar for doing propaganda through its Doha based Tv network Al Jazeera against the Saudi Arabia and called it a `Hostile Media”. The ties were restored after eight months. But it's been exactly two and half years since 2017 the Qatar blockade has become worsened with the course of time. Such a long-time crisis gulf undermines the credibility of the GCC in the future. This paper thereby aims to explore the impacts and major threats to the GCC in near future. There have been some attempts to overcome this crisis from both sides after the blockade but nothing concrete has been achieved so far. The way both parties to the dispute have deviated from each other has become the question of the reputation in the region. The longer it is prolonged the more it will raise concerns about the very core of the GCC. The underlying fear of being bullied by the powerful fellow member of the organization after the Qatar blockade among other smaller states of gulf Kuwait and Oman entails legitimacy for its future. This whole quagmire in result questions the idea of GCC. While Qatar's new friends in the region compels KSA to raise eyebrows. Contrarily, the crisis also demonstrates the vulnerability of the region that how things can be turned overnight. It also illustrates the significance of the charter of the GCC for the power member of the organization. The decisions which have been taken to blockade Qatar are determined by personal grudges rather than rationality with the unanimous decision of the all members of the organization. The blockade also has socio-cultural impacts for the gulf nations which will be discussed in the findings of the paper. The blockade has damaged the legitimacy of GCC in its cooperation with the international organizations. While, Qatar has proven its self-dependence after the dubious blockade. The process of reconciliation is further halted by the bilateral agreement by the powerful members Saudi Arabia and UAE which gives the impression non-seriousness on the part of GCC in integrating the organization in a long run.

Research Inquiry

The Gulf nations have an enormous amount of oil reserves which also make them the most vulnerable region in the Middle East. The cooperation and partnership they need is followed by the organizations like OPEC, Arab League, OIC and GCC. All these organizations have one thing in common is their mutual interests and unity in order to perpetuate their well-being and to prevent any security threat from the rest of the players in the Persian Gulf especially from Iran. Geo-political and geo-strategic policies also entertain the involvement of some international players as well. But recent political developments in the region could be predicted in the disintegration of the GCC and the region. The Qatar blockade has destabilized the gulf. The aftermath of the blockade could turn into chaos and fragmentation of the organization of the Gulf countries. The failure of GCC members to mediate the crisis between Qatar and quartet led by powerful Saudi Arabia in the region questions the future of GCC.

The study emphasizes on the impacts of the Gulf Crisis and its implication for the Gulf Cooperation Council which was formed in 1981. The paper also lays down the major imminent threats to the organization. The paper is a contribution to the existing knowledge about the Middle East intergovernmental organizations particularly in the context of Gulf Cooperation Council after the diplomatic crisis with Qatar in 2017. In the backdrop study attempts to explore further that; i) how Powerful members of the GCC undermine the capacity of the organization in resolving the crisis? ii) how Qatar has managed to survive the blockade and pursued independent foreign policy? iii) what are the Challenges to the existence of GCC in contemporary changing geo-political order of the region? Qualitative method has been adopted to design the study. Data is collected through secondary sources using journal articles, books and magazines. Through objective analysis the prediction has been made. The statement of the government officials of the gulf nations has also been used.

Literature Review

During the current political crisis in the Middle East, Saudis and Emiratis tried to single out Iran by blockading Qatar. But the strategy of both main GCC countries could not survive against the resilience of Qatar. Boussios is of the view in his book “Iran and Qatar: A forced rapprochement” that Iran grew stronger despite the severe check in the region. He further argues that if it had not been about the economy Qatar would not have stood this diplomatic crisis. Parsanta Kumar Pardhan in his article: “Qatar Crisis and Deepening Regional Faultlines” explores the changing dimensions of the region in the context of geo-politics. He takes into account the various factors such as Iran , Turkey and USA and concludes that the Gulf Cooperation Council is broken and the recent involvement of Qatar with these two players could make the region politically unstable. Moreover, it will also bring security challenges to the Saudis and Emiratis without whom the ceasefire is impossible in the current political crisis of the GCC countries (Pradhan 2018).Miroslav Zafrirov in the article published in the Journal of “Foreign Affairs” titled “ The Qatar Crisis- Why the Blockade Failed” analyses the policies of GCC and compares them with the 2017 siege and reached the conclusion that the Qatar currently holds the upper position and the crisis seems to be linger on for the unsure timeframe. He also talks about the regional dimensions of the conflict and observes that Doha will join the “axis of Ankara-Tehran-Moscow” at the expense of leaving Sunni Bloc. As these players are also engaged in the Syrian civil war. The author proves his case that the blockade has failed (Zafirov 2017). Muhammad Ahmed Naheem in his extensive research “Legitimacy of the 2017 GCC crisis and Qatar’s AML framework” published in the journal of Journal of “Money Laundering Control explains how Qatar’s anti-money laundering and Counter Terror Financing (CTF) have been successful and met the international standard. The researcher discusses the current crisis in historical sense and tries to make sense of the legitimacy of the blockade. He also stresses on the banks role and domestic industry policy of Qatar. This paper also presents the factual proof of Qatar's involvement in the terror financing (Naheem 2017b). Muhammad Ahmed Naheem in another research work “The Dramatic Rift and Crisis between Qatar and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of 2017 published in international journal of “Disc Gov” elaborates the connection of the impact of blockade on GCC. He asserts that the GCC blockading countries blindly believed in the media canards and irrationally embarked upon Qatar. In his previous article the author has empirically established the case of Qatar’s clean chit (Naheem 2017a). Another book has been consulted to conduct the literature review for the study. This book is compiled of the work of various well-known authors who are experts on the Middle East study centers. Namely Adreas Krieg, Jeremias Kettner, Hmand Al-Muftah, Ali Bakir , Anas El Gomati, Abdullah Baabood, Steven Wright, Giorgio Cafiero, Neil Quilliam , Christopher Davidson, Muhammad Hashem Al-Hashemi gives a detail account of the Qatar blockade and historical outlook of the Gulf crisis and also describe the “Political Economy, Weaponization of the region , US factor, GCC members involvement in Libya and complete account of the Qatar’s diplomatic endeavors after Qatar blockade. Matthias and Sailer and Stephen roll in their paper “ Three Scenarios of Qatar Crisis” argues that first scenario is that the blockading countries would ultimately like to change the leadership course in the Qatar which is linked to the second scenario: it will ultimately bow Qatar down in front of Saudi Arabia and the resolution could be possible afterwards. And finally building the third scenario which could erupt the cold war in the region (Sailer & Roll, 2017).   

    

Fragmentation of GCC and its Impacts

Though, GCC has not yet completely fragmented but its disintegration has serious repercussion for the Gulf countries. The political instability is on the verge as the Arab Spring inspired masses in these countries to stand for their socio-economic rights. As some protesters took to the streets of Bahrain. Given the circumstances in Yemen and Lebanon. The fear of Muslim Brotherhood and accusation on Qatar for allegedly supporting the terrorist organization. The attack on US oil installments have prompted Saudi Arabia to resuscitate the ties with Qatar. The fragmentation also has economic impacts on the GDP growth of the gulf countries. Contemporary gulf crisis is different from the crisis of 2014 which was resolved with signing a document. But after the blockade of 2017, it's been almost now two and half years to the deadlock. Qatar air space, land, and sea routes have been blocked by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain. Apart from fluctuation in the graph of economies of the GCC nations. There are some major setbacks to the socio-cultural integration of the region. Arabian Peninsula has more in common than geo-political and economic motives. It’s their values, religion and shared history which haunt the ruling families even during blockade. The dependence of migrants and non-Islamic minorities who are inhabitant to these areas also suffer from the internal strife although its not of internal nature anymore. Increase in prices because of the blockade makes the lives of labour who have come from different parts of the South Asia in Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries. Similarly, the USA’s containment policy in the Middle East to counter influence the Iran in the region also make the stability of the region riskier. The heavy installment of military bases in the region could trigger the pre-emptive strikes by any key player in the region. Saudi aggression in the region and signing bilateral agreements with other GCC members sabotage the resilience of GCC. In 2018, USA secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with GCC+2 and formed a Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) to make GCC countries stand against any possible future aggression. Albeit, a scintilla of encouragement was observed by participating in the Gulf Football tournament which was organized in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other members first reluctantly denied participating in the region but then agreed to send their teams. Many experts argue that it was basically a political move to send their teams in Qatar for participating in the tournament. The thirteen demands which have been put buy the quarter has not been met by Qatar. Some of the main provisions of the demand are worth mentioning as they are considered the bone of contention for this severe diplomatic crisis. First and foremost is to shut the Turkish military base from Qatar, secondly, Aljazeera Channel should stop its broadcast which is quite irrational and absurd demand, third one is to stop aiding the terrorist organization in the world. Saudi Arabia has always tried to dominate the organization by being an ally of Washington and its resources. Qatar in return did not follow the suit and stood for its neutral foreign policy.




Economic Impacts

In the subsequent years of the blockade, the Gulf countries faced set back in their economy and growth. According to the report of the World Bank, in 2018, the growth of GDP went down from 2% to 0.9 percent. The demand for employability increased along with the debt. The export of oil fluctuated and the fiscal deficit was changed because of this performance. Over dependence on the oil reserves makes the economic condition more vulnerable. The women’s participation in the economy is almost equal to zero and skill-based jobs are being generated by the governments. The situation could get worse because of the global economic crisis in case of disintegration of the GCC(Is Time Running Out For The Gulf Cooperation Council?, n.d.). The investments on other fronts need to be cut down. Since the blockade Qatar initially faced a setback as the country was dependent on food imports from Saudi Arabia mainly but managed to fail the blockade. While on the other hand Bahrain and Oman are according to the world bank report are in most vulnerable condition. Saudi Arabia did not face much of the shock waves caused by its own embargo on Qatar but still has little impact on its economy. Similarly, UAE according to the local public loosing job opportunities(Hanieh, 2018). Economic crisis among all the impacts of blockade is most alarming to the sustainability of the Gulf Cooperation Council. So, it immediately needs to be dealt with by the contending parties to the conflict. Moreover, the reassurance with international organizations has to be ensured so that the GCC economic situation can be balanced in case of unintended consequences of the disfranchisement in a long run.

Socio-Cultural Impacts

All the GCC countries share the same dialect, culture and ethnicity. They are intertwined with each other religiously too. Historically, these monarch houses belong to the same ancestors. The long history of their common culture can be traced back to the early days of Islam. As the oil reserves were discovered, the discovery entirely changed the course of their economic and social well-being. The house of Saud, Thani, Khalifa and others prominent families took the reign of chiefship in their respected areas and claimed sovereignty over the oil wells. All the monarch families and general public are also married with each other family across borders which make them more dependent on each other. The border free routes allow them to enter any of the GCC countries. The seldom skirmishes on border though jeopardized their freedom. But these disputes were resolved as they were of internal nature and got nothing to do any change in foreign policy(The-Strategic-Alliance-of-Saudi-Arabia-and-the-UAE.pdf, n.d.). The seriousness of recent blockade has completely altered the shape. From almost two and half years the Qatar has been blocked down from sea, land and air spaces from the anti-Qatar- quartet KSA, UAE and Bahrain while Oman and Kuwait are playing the role of mediation. The efforts of Kuwait have not yet brought any fruitful results. The cross-cultural desert pleasure trips have also been affected by this crisis. The GCC countries major chunk of the economy is generated through this cross border free movement. The crisis has gone down to the level of such absurdity that it is affecting the lives of individuals of the Gulf nations. Moreover, the sacred places for the entire Muslims in the world, the Mecca and Madeena are situated in Saudi Arabia. The government of Saudi Arabia hosts millions of pilgrimages from across the world each year. A hundred of thousands for performing Umrah around the year. The anti-Qatar- quarter which is obviously led by Kingdom of Saudi Arabia embargoed the Qatar first but later allowed the citizens of Qatar to travel to Saudi Arabia for religious rituals. Recently, Qatar hosted a mega event of Football tournament in which the teams of Saudi Arabia and UAE participated. It was a good sign for reconciliation from both disputed groups in the region. Though any serious or rational verdict is yet to be witnessed. Sheikh Saif Bin Ahmed Al Thani said, “Quartet allowed Politics to disrupt the social fabric of our union”. The quarter block has also acknowledged the fact the blockade has severely affected the individuals. The blockade not only damaged the GCC individuals but also took under its influence the Egyptians who are settled in Qatar. The people who have migrated to Qatar for better opportunities became victims of the blockade as there is rise in prices of food items against their low salaries. All these ruling families have sorted out the differences in the past but now these social problems are hitting the core of their social fabric. The problem not only is confined to the political elite, it has repercussions for the citizens too. The sentiment of being independent and nationalization is being built because of this crisis. Ultimately, making it difficult for GCC countries to come to terms in near future.




Geo-Political Impacts on the Stability of the Region

Qatar has stood the test of time after blockade. Qatar not only survived but thrived economically. However, the given circumstances of the GCC geo-political and geo-strategic vulnerabilities. The region could turn into full-blown fire by any light spark from outside. GCC has already lost its credibility and durability of multilateralism or in resolving the dispute for that matter. Following the year of the blockade in the annual summit of GCC in Kuwait there were some high hopes for reconciliation. Summit badly failed and ended in a few hours instead of its decorum of two days. The heads of KSA and UAE did not participate in the Summit. The UAE and KSA declared the bilateral agreement of cooperation between the countries leaving Oman and Kuwait in awe to trust anymore on the big fishes of the GCC. This agreement also left the impressions for many observers that they were done with the GCC mounting doubt of any future summit. Subsequently, another agreement between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia surfaced for cooperation in strategic matters. In response to this, Qatar has mended its foreign policy and increased the presence of Turkish troops in Doha who are drilling jointly with Qatar forces. Qatar also strengthened its ties with Iran which is the biggest source of worry for Saudi Arabia and UAE. Not all the GCC nations perceive Iran as threat to their sovereignty as KSA and UAE do. Perhaps, this imminent threat of Iranian dominance in the region reinforces the Saudi tensions in context of its geo-political motives which Qatar has defiantly denied to be part of. June 5th, 2017 blockade by the Quartet supervised this strategic partnership between Qatar and Turkey as major threat to the stability of the region. While Qatar and Turkey claim this partnership as a guarantee for the stability of the region. Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in a TV interview: “that Turkey and Qatar have signed eight agreements or MOUs, for the strength of our relationship” he further said, “we have also taken under consideration the regional issues and will ensure the “excellent Cooperation”. On the other hand, Iran has provided the way out to its sea route and air space after blockade and oversaw this potential of this new episode of cooperation between Iran and Qatar to be further strengthened in the region. Qatar soon after the Blockade restored its diplomatic ties with Iran which were suspended in solidarity with Saudi Arabia back in 2016 when a Shia cleric was killed in Saudi Arabia(Pradhan, 2018). The anti-Qatar-quartet blowback resulted in the re-emergence of Iran-Qatar relations. A keen observation of the geo-political situation of the asserts that the GCC may face a permanent siege. Demands put by Quartet have not met with the expectations of Saudi Arabia and UAE. Instead, the Qatar showed resistance that any future prospect for the restoration of this should started on neutral grounds. However, the American involvement in the region remains quite relevant to discuss. Having the US biggest military base in Qatar and rising and emerging ties with Iran-Qatar relations put Doha under “geo-political” pressure. Aside from this Oman and Kuwait are already dependent on the UK military assistance. The stagnation of GCC has arisen the apprehension of Kuwait and Oman. According to British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon, “Oman has been enjoying military partnership with the UK, is thinking to establish a permanent military base in the region”. Given the independent foreign policy of Qatar, Saudi aggression under Crown Prince MBS, Bahrain’s Prime Minister to its counterpart in Qatar and Iranian expansion in the Middle East compounded with the inoperative GCC status leaves no impression of rapprochement.

Major Challenges to GCC in Future

Dominance of Saudi Arabia

Overarching ambition of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the region stems from the threat to its rivalry with Iran. It is quite understandable obsession given the geo-strategic condition of the region currently. However, the problem surfaces when Kingdom paints the rest of the members of GCC with the same brush. It is important to understand from where this rigidity comes when it comes to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. There are some worth-mentioning driving forces, A) Saudi Arabia is home to most sacred places for Muslims across the world B) Saudi Arabia’s staunch believe in Salafi Islam provide legitimacy among other nationals of the GCC countries who almost believe in the same kind of Islam C) one of the most important reason rigidity is their Oil reserves and supervision of USA. Saudi Arabia is member of many regional organizations such as OPEC, Arab League, OIC, GCC. Saudi Arabia holds a significant position in all these organizations which also is part of the problem. Saudi Arabia in anticipation of external threat from Yemen, Syria, and more specifically Iran tries to turn the things around its national interest regardless of sensitivity of the member states economic, geo-political national interests. The same dominant feature of the US foreign policy has downgraded the legitimacy of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The decision to launch blockade against Qatar in 2017 was taken solely on personal grudges without consulting all the signatory parties of the organization. The Blockade, however, was soon supported by UAE and Bahrain for the greater good of the region. Despite their utmost efforts to isolate Qatar both in region and internationally has backfired. Qatar in response to this blockade took lessons and built domestic industry and relied on its natural resource of gas. Qatar food import dependence soon was circumvented by Iran. Resultantly, making the GCC durability and significance in the future susceptible. The underlying sentiment which is given by the KSA unknowingly is bigger than they might think of in the future. Kingdom’s dominance harms the solidification of the organizations in a number of ways. Firstly, the weaker members of the organizations with their personnel’s changing in power could deviate from the GCC to escape any future threat. Secondly, KSA’s geo-strategic concerns overshadows the legitimate partnership of the member countries in the organization. Finally, Saudi Arabia’s dominance has built the sentiment of nationalism in the region and trust on the mutual corporation evaporated. Therefore, the dominance of Saudi Arabia in the GCC is as alarming as its importance as a member of the organization. Saudi Arabia has dragged the region to the verge of a divided Gulf.




Lack of Unified thinking and Credibility

In order to keep influence of any entity in international relations, the participant member of the organization must work for the integration of the players. If the players achieve the harmony of interest in the cooperation, the average perfectibility of the organization maximizes the result. A thorough study of the most successful of the organizations in the world so far would unleash the key elements behind the strength they have had. Such organizations not only incorporate rules and regulations which ensure the interest of every member but also show their presence on the ground if need be in case of any external threat. If any of these members fail to comply with the rules and charter of the organization the rest of the members take in confidence every member’s valid opinion and take action accordingly. Once the action is taken, the room for flexibility is also maintained as there is no permanent enemy or friend in the International Interest. In case of Gulf Cooperation Council, what makes them united apart from any materialistic or political or economic motivations is the same dialect, ethnicity and religion. But unfortunately, despite having such strong reasons for unity, the geo-political and economic seems growing bigger to their sky sizes egos. The Qatar Blockade has in a way unfolded the reality of GCC which was deemed by the world as one of the most credible organizations. The lack of unity among the members of GCC can be observed since its inception. First, there were border disputes among the countries, for instance, the border dispute between Qatar and Bahrain which was resolved in International Court of Justice. KSA and UAE fought over the demarcation of the boundary. Moving on from the border disputes, issues started to grow on a bigger scale. The formation of Peninsular Shied Force miserably failed to give any outcome keeping in view the strategic sensitivity of the region. It would not be wrong to say that PSF only fought on paper rather than any battleground. The members of the GCC also diverged on many tax and monetary policies. The charter of the GCC has never been respected by any of the members. In the blockade of the mid 2017, the GCC has completely been exposed to the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia and UAE and Bahrain without consulting remaining smaller weak states of the regions took the decision to end the remaining possibility of GCC’s bright future. Substantially, the bilateral agreements of the GCC members have inhibited the efficacy of multilateralism for the Gulf nations. Inefficient performance of the oil dependent economies of the GCC members after this blockade seem to cut their own roots with irrationality. The misguided perceptions of the Saudi Arabia and UAE under Crown Prince Muhamad Bin Salman and Muhammad Bin Zayed respectively taking GCC to its demise slowly but surely. So, there is dire need of consensus among the blockading countries to reach a settlement. A settlement that could ensure the long-lasting impact of cooperation for which this organization was formed in the first place. Anyhow, the restoration of ties should be in national interest of each member of the organization.




Geo-Strategic Failure of the GCC’s Powerful Members

The external imminent threat always looms over the GCC members especially on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia over the last few years has involved itself in Libya, Yemen and Bahrain militarily and politically. Yemen lies on the Southern border of Saudi Arabia. The upheavals in 2015, toppled the regime of Hadi in Yemen. The Houthis , who are Zayediya Shia, populate the northern part of the country which borders Saudi Arabia in its south. Kingdom allegedly blames Iran for playing the proxies in the region and for supporting the Houthis, while Iran denied any assistance to Houthis. Contrarily, the implications for UAE and KSA after the Qatar blockade of 2017 have also blew back to the poor foreign policy of the powerful members of the regions. Resultantly, leaving the GCC in almost semi-alive situation. Qatar has strengthened its alliances with Turkey and Iran. So, the rage stems from these failures may result in disbanding the GCC by the powerful members. They already have lemmatized the durability of organization bypassing the GCC structure. Furthermore, the USAs presence in the Middle East to contain Iran against the KSA and UAE may offend the allies of Iran in the region potentially, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The recent death of Irani general Qasim Sulemani brought two countries on the verge of war. Iran’s stronghold in Iraq constitutes the worrisome conditions for Saudis. Prolonged blockade with Qatar will raise its contingency on Iran. Iran would never want this contingent plan of Qatar to be disrespected. Ultimately, will be raising the economic dependence and cooperation deepened. Saudis in response could try to destabilize their ties. This geo-political game would further due the chance of reconciliation. Agonistic nature of Saudi government towards the fellow counterparts of the organization needs to be rationalized and channelized so that gradual development to mend the ties can be safeguarded. The Saudis should learn from their tried and tested formulas of flawed foreign policy. The domestic changes in the kingdom providing licenses and opening cinemas should go parallel with the peaceful foreign affairs of the country. Qatar used the soft channels right after the blockade to save their image internationally and quickly turned to enemies of the Saudis which also shows the no sign of flexibility on their side too. It is also implied on the rest of the GCC members to collectively put effort to end the crisis rather being party to the one powerful side which is good for nothing. Therefore, the capitulation of the powerful members of the GCC could be the final nail in the coffin of the organization. Current economic condition of the global economy does not allow an organization like the GCC to be disbanded as it encompasses one of the richest oil reserve countries in the world. The significance of the GCC for the stable economy of the region is as important as for the GCC members.

Conclusion

The Middle East entails its importance in the political arena of the world largely because of its oil facilities. These oil wells are also making the region more prone to securitization from internal and external threats. Under the umbrella of Liberal International Order what is best considered for the cooperation of neighboring countries is to make ties with them diplomatically and financially through trade and cooperation in common security threats from external aggression. The GCC was no exception in this regard but the current situation in the region after careful investigations thought qualitative method and using secondary source for data collection. The future of the GCC is unpredictably dormant for the unidentified number of years. The unwillingness of the members helps somewhat understand the upcoming political developments in the context of GCC’s survival. Although, a third-party involvement or mediation or stress for that matter on the blockading countries could bear fruit for the region in general. The accumulation of a number of factors from the unpleasant past and contemporary changing dynamics of the region identify the impacts and threats to the GCC through the findings of this paper. The economic, geo-strategic and socio-cultural impacts are getting roots in the Arab society which could lead these nascent states in comparison to European or African states towards collapse. Some of them are also war-torn, the remaining are surviving only because of organizations like GCC. So, the disintegration of GCC is not yet entirely predictable but quite imminent to learn a lesson too. Some of the main threats to the GCC should be immediately handled without trading the insult to any countries. Futile, imaginative supervision of Saudi Arabia, lack of unanimity in decision making and geo-strategic overarching ambitions should be reconsidered on immediate basis. The third party’s mediation should jump in to save any catastrophe in future. The rest of the Muslim countries who are credible enough for both Quartet and Qatar should provide their good offices. The future should be outlined so that any crisis like the present one could be escaped in the long run. Free movement of citizens across borders should be restored so that the sense of integration could prevail. Socio-cultural activities regardless of politics among royal families should be encouraged. In conclusion this paper has attempted to add in existing literature upon GCC crisis and in the Middle Eastern political sphere academic endeavors.  

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